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President Donald J. Trump has reached new milestones in betting markets, as confidence in his chances of reclaiming the White House surges. The latest projections from betting platform Polymarket give Trump a 60 percent chance of winning the 2024 presidential race, while Vice President Kamala Harris trails with a 40 percent probability. This shift marks a significant development in the race, with Trump pulling away in recent weeks as momentum shifts in his favor.
Over $584 million has been placed on a Trump victory on Polymarket, far outpacing the $393 million wagered on Harris. One high-stakes bettor has even put down nearly $10 million on Trump, underscoring the growing belief in his chances. The market had shown a much closer race between Trump and Harris throughout the summer, but the gap has widened significantly in the past two weeks.
Polls are also reflecting Trump’s growing strength. He has gained ground in several key swing states that will likely decide the 2024 election. According to a Rasmussen Reports projection, Trump is now leading in Pennsylvania, one of the most critical battleground states.
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Rasmussen’s head pollster, Mark Mitchell, suggested that many polls had previously overestimated Harris’s support by oversampling Democrats, a pattern seen during the 2020 election when polls also underestimated Trump’s strength.
RealClearPolitics (RCP) recently published an aggregate of polls showing Trump ahead in five of the seven most competitive swing states. Based on this data, Trump is on track to win at least 296 Electoral College votes, well above the 270 required to secure the presidency. The electoral map appears to be tilting in Trump’s favor as his campaign picks up steam.
One of the key factors behind Trump’s growing support is his appeal to traditionally Democratic voters, particularly among Hispanic and Black men. Hispanic voters are set to play a crucial role in states like Arizona and Nevada, where they make up around 30 percent of the population. If Trump can secure significant support among these voters, it could shift the balance in these pivotal states.
Another surprising development is Trump’s recent endorsement by the Mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan, a city with a Muslim-majority population. This endorsement could boost Trump’s chances in Michigan, a key swing…
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