Rush Limbaugh always had a principle about polls.
The late conservative radio powerhouse said that polls were designed to make news and that they don’t really show what’s going on until we get inside the month of an election. Limbaugh added that the polls tighten so that those in the media can maintain their credibility by getting them inside the margin of error. Since 2020 that’s been exacerbated.
However, a recent New York Times poll has exhibited the same principle, and it’s all bad news for Democrats. According to the Times, just one month ago, Democrats had a one-point edge but now are trailing Republicans by four points.
The Times is now admitting, “It’s the economy stupid.”
From the New York Times:
The poll shows that 49 percent of likely voters said they planned to vote for a Republican to represent them in Congress on Nov. 8, compared with 45 percent who planned to vote for a Democrat. The result represents an improvement for Republicans since September, when Democrats held a one-point edge among likely voters in the last Times/Siena poll. (The October poll’s unrounded margin is closer to three points, not the four points that the rounded figures imply.)
With inflation unrelenting and the stock market steadily on the decline, the share of likely voters who said economic concerns were the most important issues facing America has leaped since July, to 44 percent from 36 percent — far higher than any other issue. And voters most concerned with the economy favored Republicans overwhelmingly, by more than a two-to-one margin.
Two factors that were most interesting about the post: 1. Women were split evenly 2. Independents
The poll found that the gender gap has disappeared for Republicans on the generic ballot; it was a 47/47 split (so much for the abortion rights campaign waged by the Democrats).
Also, Democrats are taking a beating from independents who are – by ten points – choosing Republicans over Democrats.
More from the Times:
Both Democrats and Republicans have largely coalesced behind their own party’s congressional candidates. But the poll showed that Republicans opened up a 10-percentage point lead among crucial independent voters, compared with a three-point edge for Democrats in September, as undecided voters moved toward Republicans.
The biggest shift came from women who identified as independent voters. In September, they favored Democrats by 14 points. Now, independent women backed Republicans by 18 points — a striking swing given the polarization of the American electorate and how intensely Democrats have focused on that group and on the threat Republicans pose to abortion rights.
The Democrat’s focus on demonizing Republicans and abortion rights has failed.
